It begins

Sitting in the airport in Vancouver, awaiting an overnight flight to Hong Kong and I realize that I have almost no idea what I am going to be doing on arrival. I have read all the books I can on cost/benefit analysis, disaster risk reduction, GIS, computer hazard modeling, natural hazards analysis and earthquakes in Indonesia as well as articles on statistical analysis. My pack is about half full of the selected printed works from this research and the computer hard drive is about half full of the electronic versions. To be honest though, all the background reading in the world will hardly prepare me for this upcoming internship project/cultural adventure.

Here are the briefing notes:

Cost/benefit analysis (CBA) is done for projects, usually before they are begun, to see if they are financially efficient (i.e., the financial benefits are greater than the financial costs). However, in this internship, the purpose is to analyze the efficiency of projects that have already been put in place and add a segment of qualitative (aka non-financial) costs and benefits to these projects. We can then learn from this analysis which programs to pursue in the future and go back to major donors to show how well their money was spent.

Disaster risk reduction (DRR) is a fancy catch-all phrase covering just about all things that people can do to lessen the impacts of a disaster before the disaster hits. These actions can be behavioral (preparedness, training, moving out of high risk areas, etc.) or physical (structure strengthening, levees, berms, etc.). As DRR is a major focus of an international attempt, headed by the UN, to reduce disaster impacts worldwide, the breadth of what is considered DRR is continually widening.

Hazard, in this case, refers mainly to earthquakes, as has been shown by the history of damaging earthquakes in Indonesia (most notably the tsunami triggering quake of 2004, but also in 2005, 2007 and 2009, see

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/historical_country.php#indonesia

for more details). Risks of major earthquake events are high and with poor building conditions, increasing population pressures, extreme poverty, poor environmental standards and low social security, there is a large vulnerable population. Think Haiti compared to Chile this past winter.

Keep in mind, that the 'benefits' of these projects are measured by the damage that didn't happen as a result of these projects having been put into place. Hence, there will be a reliance on trying to measure the unknown by using probability analysis based on historical measurements of the impact of past disasters. All in all, a challenging process.

For more concrete information, I am working (for free) on behalf of a US-based NGO that specializes in disaster relief and humanitarian aid and have been partnered up with a Phd economist student named Jose. We will be arriving in Padang together in about 20 hours and will be staying at a guest house next to the office. According to the net, there is a surf spot a short bus ride away will some slow rollers and a few good places to hike in the hills heading inland. Weather is hot and humid, but its the dry season so, besides sweat, we should stay relatively dry. Tropical fruit is abundant and the local food is world renowned. 90% of the locals are Muslim, so pork and alcohol are difficult to find, which suits me just fine. People are poor but friendly and curious of foreigners. There is very little violence in the area, not close to any of the areas that were bombed a few years back or to any of the separatist movements that have plagued different parts of the country. Democracy is young in Indonesia, being instated in 1999, as a result of a student-led Islamic movement. Indonesia is the 4th largest country (in terms of population) in the world and has the world's largest population of Muslims. There are about a billion little islands that make up the country (6 thousand populated), each with its own history, culture and flavor. The island of Sumatra is 10 times the size of Vancouver Island and the population is about 100 times greater. Padang has about a million inhabitants. All in all, an exciting place to be!

So, you are now just about as informed as I am. Surely this upcoming week will be full of new information and realizations of incorrect assumptions.

Until next time,

Teron